Flood Forecasting

Flood Forecasting

The CRCA monitors weather information, river flows, snow pack and ice conditions in order to predict when floods will occur and how high the water may rise. When flooding is possible, or about to occur, the CRCA issues flood messages to municipal emergency management officials and the media. In a flood emergency situation, municipalities take the lead as they are responsible for emergency response under provincial legislation. Each municipality has an emergency response plan which deals with many situations including flooding.

As a result of a review of flood message terminology, the CRCA and Conservation Authorities across the province are introducing some changes effective February 2012. These changes will ensure that Conservation Authorities use consistent terminology in line with that used by other agencies such as the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment Canada and the Weather Network.

Flood Messages and What They Mean

Normal: No flood conditions exist

Normal watershed conditions

Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety
High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors that could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.

water safety flood level 

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook
Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.

Flood outlook level 

Flood Watch – Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.

Flood watch level 

Flood Warning – Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities.

Flood warning level